Zito's World

What The Hell is Going On?

I just saw something that perfectly illustrates just how crazy the college football season has been so far. Illinois, which had lost 30 of their previous 32 Big Ten games prior to this year, is listed as a 2.5 point favorite this weekend against undefeated, #5 in the country Wisconsin. Huh?

And I want to pass on a link to an advertisement that mad me laugh. Enjoy.

p.s. Here's one other video from the same website. This is bizarre.

I'm Obsessed

It has finally happened to me. I resisted for years, but I've finally been overcome by the lure of fantasy football. I still have no interest in NFL fantasy, but my college teams are more than enough to occupy way, way too much of my time; more time than I could ever justify spending on sports during the week. The first sign of trouble was shortly after my first draft some weeks ago. It was such an exhilirating experience that I immediately signed up for two more public leagues just so I could do two more drafts. I now spend at least an hour each day - and often much more - micromanaging my squads to an absurd extent. Trades, signing free agents, researching matchups - these things will almost certainly lead to my eventual ruin. Losing my job and my girlfriend over this are turning into real possibilities. Well, perhaps that's a slight exaggeration, but it definitely pisses my girlfriend off; and the sick part is that I have no defense. I freely admit that I have a problem, how could I not? Do they have fantasy sports rehab? Are there twelve steps I can follow? I may have to turn to alcohol to break away from my fantasy leagues much like alcoholics sometimes rely on cigarettes to help them stop drinking. Twenty years from now when I am a broken shell of a man standing on a street corner, I will remember this moment in time as the point where it all began to unravel.

-T

Week Two Reactions

The college football season is only two weeks old and it's already turning out to be one of those years to expect the unexpected, which is bad news for someone who tends to gamble a wee bit too much. Not that I know anybody like that. Regardless, it's been a lot of fun to watch and I'm already excited to see what surprises are in store for next week. Without further ado here are some things that stood out to me from week two's action...

It appears that three teams are beginning to seperate from the preseason pack: Oklahoma, LSU, and USC. It's hard to exaggerate how impressive OU was in destroying Miami in Norman. That their defense held The U's pop gun offense to just 13 points wasn't surprising, but putting 51 on the board against a very good defense was pretty amazing. Freshman quarterback Sam Bradford has been out of control in his first two games, completing 40 of 48 passes for over 550 yards and eight touchdowns. LSU has been even more impressive, beating two BCS conference opponents by an average score of 46-3, including a 48-7 drubbing of #9 Va. Tech last night. Admittedly, that win would have looked a lot better before the season started as Tech has yet to show they belong in the top 25 let alone the top 10, but it was still awfully convincing. Apologies to Florida, Penn State, and perhaps West Virginia, who have all looked terrific, but I believe are still a step behind.

There were several coaching decisions throughout the day that either made me cringe or yell obsceneties at the TV screen, depending on the game. Without getting into specific moments from this weekend, I want to take a moment to vent about one particularly illogical move that is all too common in both the NCAA and the NFL. It's when a team that has played good defense all game long comes out in the "prevent" formation when protecting a lead late in the game. Instead of trusting their defense that has held the opposing team's offense in check for three plus quarters, these coaches decide to freely give up large chunks of yardage in exchange for running off a little of the clock. The endings of these games are frequently way more interesting than they ought to be. It drives me crazy; especially when the easy touchdown allowed by the prevent ruins the pointspread, which happens all too often, dammit.

Western Kentucky went up 49-0 after the first quarter on the way to an 87-0 victory over a fearsome West Virginia Tech squad. What are they, division nine? Anyway, I was rooting for 100.

Texas woke up from a four and a half game slumber just in time to avoid being upset by TCU. Still, if they are going to have a chance against OU on October 6 they need to get better fast.

Louisiana Tech had by far the worst defense in the country last year by almost every measure. Hawaii has a record setting offense the likes of which college football has rarely seen. So how did La. Tech hold the Rainbows to just 38 points in regulation on the way to an amazing upset that almost was? Beats the hell out of me. If Hawaii is invited to play in a BCS bowl game this year they are going to get murdered by somebody. I'm very prejudiced against them because their offense is gimmicky and most of all because they scheduled two 1-AA opponents for this year.

Wisconsin is way overrated. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose three or four games this year.

Perhaps no one in history has been more of a lame duck than Lloyd Carr is at this point. I almost feel bad for the guy. But not quite.

Speaking of coaches on the hot seat, I don't quite understand the talk of Charlie Weis' job being in jeopardy. He has been at Notre Dame for two seasons and been to BCS bowls both years. The Irish are going to be below .500 this year, but with Jimmy Clausen and the other youngsters on the team getting some experience they should be much improved next year and beyond. If the brass at Notre Dame really are considering canning Weis if this year goes badly (which it will), then they have developed a very distorted view of their program at this point. It is no longer among the most elite programs in the country, and as long as the coaches have to deal with higher admissions requirements than most schools it will be extremely difficult to get back to that level. Two BCS bowls in three years should be cause for celebration, not cause for the coach to be unemployed.

Texas A&M has some sort of built in mediocrity gene that makes them play to the level of their competition every week. It doesn't matter if the team they're playing is winless or undefeated, the game will probably come down to the final five minutes. 

Go Cocks!!! I predicted that my Gamecocks would finally earn a marquee win this year, so beating Georgia in Athens made me happy for multiple reasons. Now, like everyone back in Columbia, It's time to get carried away with reckless optimism! If things go well, now that Tennessee is looking vulnerable, we can go into the Arkansas, Florida, Clemson threesome at the end of the schedule at 8-1. If we can somehow, someway manage a miracle victory at LSU in two weeks, we could be 9-0! I can smell it, we're almost there! Realistically, though, ten wins is not out of the question at this point, though eight or nine is still more likely.

This may just be a semantic argument, but the Appy State win at Michigan was not the biggest upset ever. It may have been the biggest shocker ever, insofar as no one saw it coming, but the Mountaineers are a legitimate top 25 caliber D-1 squad. Unlike, for example, the miserable 0-6 Temple team that beat then #10 Virginia Tech despite being a 38.5 point underdog and being down 17-0 in 1998. That was a much bigger upset.

That's all I got. Can't wait until week three.

-T

Thoughts On The First Weekend Of NCAA Football

As I write this, I have been sitting on my couch watching football for eleven hours straight. I've been counting down the days until this weekend for two months now, and despite my disappointment that so many upper echelon teams chose to overwhelm far inferior competition rather than to schedule a legitimate game, it was still everything I had hoped it would be. Here is what I saw while glued to the couch today...

Watching Appalachian State beat Michigan in The Big House was the second best thing I've ever witnessed in NCAA sports. The first being Boise State's Fiesta Bowl win last year over Oklahoma. I almost lost my lunch when the Appy St. coaches inexplicably chose not to run the final thirty seconds off the clock before attempting the game winning field goal. Had they lost because of that, which they should have, it would have ruined my day utterly and completely. Due to my aversion to schools who schedule 1-AA opponents to rack up easy wins, watching one of them pull off such a staggering upset was phenomenal. As far as Michigan's big three seniors, there's no doubt that Mike Hart and Jake Long are terrific players, but now can everyone please stop pretending that Chad Henne is anything more than mediocre? 

The trend of naming Virginia as a sleeper team for this year is officially dead. They were handled easily by Wyoming, 23-3. Wyoming is a solid mid-major team, but that's just an embarassing performance.

Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Kentucky have joined my shit list for scheduling rediculous games against pitiful competition. The average score of their games was 55-6, with OU squeaking by UNT 79-10. Come on.

Texas could be in big trouble if they can only beat Arkansas State by a touchdown. If one of their units was going to struggle, I think most people would've thought it would be their defense, which was very vulnerable to the pass last year. Somehow, though, their offense was outgained by fifty yards and only managed twenty one points.

I want Mark May to go away. Lou Holtz was obviously antagonizing him on purpose today during their broadcast and it was hilarious.

A new sleeper may have emerged from out of the Big 12. Last year the Kansas Jayhawks had a very anonymous 6-6 season and missed out on a bowl, but four of those losses were heartbreakers that were decided at the last minute. They could reasonably have gone 10-2 with a little luck and would have been one of the biggest stories of the year, much like Rutgers and Wake Forest were. They opened this season by destroying a legit Central Michigan team 52-7, and they have a very manageable Big 12 schedule. Nine or ten wins is not out of the question.

I would love to go the rest of the season without hearing a commentator say a player is "taking a blow". Can't we get by with "taking a breather", "taking a rest", "catching his breath", or anything else that actually makes sense and doesn't sound naughty.

Former Highland Parkie Matthew Stafford looked awfully good in Georgia's convincing win over Okie State.

And there is one especially positive development that I am excited about. Mike Gottfried has been moved from the ESPN2 broadcasts to the ESPNU broadcasts, which means he'll be doing less important games, which means I won't have to watch nearly as many games on mute this year. I honestly believe he has no idea where he is half the time. And his senile ramblings are made worse by the fact that he whistles his "s"s. Hearing him on one of his tangents reminds me of the Simpsons episode in which Grandpa Simpson disperses an angry mob by telling them a boring story with no ending. I hate to sound mean, but he aggravates me greatly.

LSU is going to annihilate Virginia Tech next week. I'm already disappointed by that game and it hasn't even happened yet. The Hokie's offense was miserable today. Everyone thoroughly sucked.

I can't wait for next Saturday so I can do this all over again.

-T 

Note To Major Conference Football Programs, Pick On Someone Your Own Size

The current trend of football teams from major conferences starting off their schedule with absurdly overmatched opponents is starting to get on my nerves. Tonight Louisville crushed division 1-AA Murray State 73-10, Rutgers beat Buffalo 38-3, Cincinnati destroyed 1-AA Southeast Missouri State 59-3, and Boise State is currently spanking 1-AA Weber State 56-7. Hawaii, the mid-major team most likely to wind up in a BCS bowl game this year, has two 1-AA opponents on their schedule. What's the point of these games? I understand that it brings much needed revenue to the smaller schools, but it's still akin to a high school team suiting up against a Pop Warner squad. The players don't benefit from these games nearly as much as they would from playing against even mediocre competition, and the padded records that result from these contests are rightfully treated with much skepticism by the pollsters. College football players are grown men, but their coaches are still educators in a sense, and what do these games teach their players? What example is being set by mauling teams that you can beat handily with your second team? I lose a lot of respect for any program that chooses to go this route. 

-T 

8 Burning Questions For in The Upcoming College Football Season

1. What can Boise St. do for an encore? They set the bar as high as it goes with last year's undefeated season capped off by the game of the century against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and they have to replace eleven starters including QB Jared Zabransky. That said, it's not like they came out of nowhere. They've been a winning program for a while now and should put together another solid season against WAC competition. But do they have a shot at running the table again? Prediction: 10-2.

2. Will Jimmy Clausen be Notre Dame's savior? Clausen comes in with rediculous hype and he seems to believe all of it, but he will have a tough task ahead of him. The Irish are rebuilding this year and are doing it against a brutal schedule that could see them sitting at 1-7 after week 8. A sub .500 record is a strong possibility. Prediction: Clausen will have a rude awakening throughout a very humbling freshman year.

3. How will Alabama do in the first year of the Nick Saban era? Nine starters return from a mediocre offense, but the defense returns only four. They were close in a number of tough losses last year and seem primed for a big leap in 2007. A manageable schedule by SEC standards will help. I predict the Tide will finish 9-4 followed by huge expectations going into '08.

4. Can Les Miles avoid a stumble this year and finally make it to the title game? He's only been at LSU for a few years, but his teams have been preseason favorites to reach the title game each year only to find a way to lose a couple of games during the season. That's hardly something to be ashamed of in the brutal SEC, but with all of their toughest games at home in 2007, this could be their year. Prediction: 12-1 and an SEC title heading into a title game matchup against USC.

5. Will Hawaii run the table? I bristle at the comparisons to last year's Boise St. team. Boise played a very respectable non-conference schedule, while Hawaii has two 1-AA opponents on the slate for 2007. For argument's sake, if Hawaii traded places with Kentucky, I think the Wildcats might well run the table and Hawaii would struggle to make a bowl out of the SEC. Prediction: The Rainbows finish the regular season 12-0, but are controversially (and rightly) left out of the BCS due to their weak schedule.

6. Who will be the biggest surprise of 2007? Every year there is a team or two that gets little preseason fanfare and plays their way into the BCS discussion, such as Arkansas and Rutgers last year. Prediction: A much improved offense will catapult Penn State into the top 10. If they can find a way to get past Michigan in The Big House on Sept. 22, watch out.

7. Will Rutgers make another run at an undeafeated season? The Scarlet Knights are a legitimate top 20 team, but they are a step below West Va. and Louisville talent-wise, and South Florida will be a stiff test this year. Can they recapture the magic of 2006? Prediction: Rutgers will have another successful season, but lose a few on the way to a 10-3 finish.

8. Can South Carolina break through the glass cieling in the SEC East? I have a bit more interest than most in this one since I was a Gamecock, but plenty of people will be watching to see if Steve Spurrier can lead his squad to the next level. They were painfully close to a few huge wins last year against Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas. Prediction: The Cocks are still one year away from contention for an SEC title, but they will finally steal a marquee win along the way to an 8-5 finish.

-T

Preseason Top 25: My Shot At Redemption

Preseason college football rankings are among the most worthless things in the world, but for a football junkie like me they are irresistable. This season I decided to take a shot at creating my own poll. In the short history of this blog I have only had the opportunity to predict the NBA finals, and I proved myself worthless as a sports prognosticator by calling the Cavs in six. I know much more about football than I do about the NBA, however, so I see this as my chance to redeem myself. Plus, it was a good excuse to spend all day on the couch reading about college football instead of doing anything productive. So here is the inaugural Zito's World top 25 poll, with the major concern for each team at the season's beginning.

1. USC - The Trojans should win every game, but a tough road schedule (at Neb., Ore., ND, and Cal) could cause them to stumble. Ten starters return to the nation's twentieth ranked defense in 2006.
2. LSU -  The Tigers are loaded on both sides of the ball. Their defense is always among the best in the country, and with eight starters returning this could be the best one yet. JaMarcus Russell is gone, but Matt Flynn should be capable of keeping the offense running. Can Les Miles finally turn all of his talent into a national title? A Sep. 8 matchup against Va. Tech will be a great early test.
3. West Va. - The only question here is defense. The group gained experience last year, but can they improve enough to run the table?
4. Texas - Mack Brown brings in superior talent, but it took a player as transcendant as Vince Young to finally get UT over the hump. Will they settle back into familiar territory as perennial underachievers, or will they make a run at a second NCAA title in three years?
5. Florida - They lost two huge playmakers on defense in Reggie Nelson and Jarvis Moss, but they should have the athletes to put together another a top 20 unit. Aside from that, it's awfully tough to bet against Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow, and Percy Harvin.
6. Michigan - A very manageable schedule gives the Wolverines a great shot at being 10-0 going into back to back games against Wisc. and OSU, but can Chad Henne and company finally win a big game? Henne enters his senior season 0-6 against OSU and in bowl games.
7. Oklahoma - With tons of talent returning, they just need to find a quarterback to run the show and they could make a fourth title game appearance in nine years. A favorable schedule has the Sooners playing all of their best opponents at home, except for the essentially neutral site matchup against Texas in Dallas.
8. Wisconsin - An extremely soft schedule was a significant reason the Badgers went 12-1 in 2006. This year they must go to Penn St. and Ohio St., and they need a new quarterback to replace John Stocco. Seven returning defensive starters should keep last season's fifth ranked defense among the nation's best.
9. Va. Tech - Eight starters return to the country's most dominant defense in 2006. If Sean Glennon can show improvement, the Hokies have a shot at running the table. However, going to LSU on Sep. 8 could put them behind the eight ball early in the year.
10. California - If the secondary improves and Justin Forsett can ease the loss of Marshawn Lynch, this team has the tools to win every game on their schedule. They haven't looked like they belong against the top competition over the past couple of years, are they mentally prepared to make the leap?
11. Louisville - The return of Brian Brohm is huge, but can the defense replace seven starters from last year?
12. Tennessee - In my opinion this team is being overlooked a bit. It took most of last season for Erik Ainge to make me believe his resurrection was real, but if he can guide the Vols through a tough early season schedule, including games at Cal and at Florida, it will be all downhill from there. If RB LaMarcus Coker remains suspended into the season it will sting.
13. Auburn - A brutal SEC schedule (Fla., Ark., LSU, and UGA all on the road) will be extremely difficult to negotiate, but if the offense can avoid the injury trouble that plagued them in 2006 the Tigers can beat anyone at anytime.
14. Rutgers - As last year's feel good story Rutgers played out of their minds all year. They don't have the talent to play mediocre football and still win, so can they find the same magic again? Except for Louisville, all their toughest games are at home.
15. Ohio St. - The defense could be just as good as last year's unit that allowed just 12.8 points per game, but how will the offense fair without Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzales and with Todd Boeckman stepping in for Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith?
16. Nebraska - Transfer Sam Keller should be able to ease the loss of Big 12 offensive POY Zac Taylor, but is this team good enough to turn the corner and start winning big games? The Huskers should return to the conference title game in 2007.
17. Georgia - The Bulldogs have several questions they need to answer for them to contend in the SEC East. The Matthew Stafford led offense supposedly moved the ball at will against the defense in spring pratice. Is that a positive sign for Stafford, who needs to improve significantly from his freshman season, or a bad omen for a defense that is supposed be among the nations best?
18. Hawaii - I struggled with ranking Hawaii this high. They may have a better record than, say, Missouri, but how would Mizzou fare against a WAC schedule? My guess is just as well. And two games against division 1-AA opponents? Yikes.The Nov. 23 showdown against Boise State in Honalulu could feature two teams that are a combined 21-0.
19. Penn State - If Anthony Morelli can live up to his considerable potential, the Nittany Lions could be a dark horse contender for the national title. They need to find a RB, but they are loaded everywhere else, and among Michigan, OSU, and Wisconsin only the Michigan game is on the road.
20. Oregon State - The Beavers return 15 starters from their 9-4 team a year ago. With some improvement from experience on both sides of the ball, they could be favored in every game except on the road at Cal and USC.
21. Arkansas - Casey Dick needs to prove he can throw the ball consistently well to keep opposing defenses honest, but Darren McFadden and Felix Jones can make their own holes too. The secondary is a question mark, but the defense should still be effective thanks to Reggie Harring's blitz happy approach. A manageable schedule by SEC standards will help.
22. Boston College - The Eagles rarely look impressive, but they do win a lot of games. With Matt Ryan back for his senior year and nine defensive starters returning, BC can win every game on their schedule, but all five road games are agianst tough teams (GT, ND, Va. Tech, Mary., Clem.). Two or more losses in these games will be difficult to avoid.
23. TCU - The second best team in Texas this year could be the Horned Frogs. There are questions at QB and reciever, but with nine starters returning to the nation's second ranked defense and a MWC schedule, TCU has its sight set on crashing the BCS party. Can they find a way to get past Texas in Austin on Sep. 8?
24. Ga. Tech - Losing Calvin Johnson and four year starting QB Reggie Ball could wind up being positives for the Yellow Jackets. The offense may be more balanced and less mistake prone in their absence. The defense was solid last year and eight starters return in 2007. A tough schedule starts off in South Bend on Sep. 1.
25. UCLA - A whopping twenty starters return to a Bruin squad that finished 7-6 a year ago. Despite losing to FSU in the Emerald Bowl, their December victory over USC is something to build on. If Ben Olson can play up to his potential and the secondary improves as expected, ten wins is not out of the question.

Just missing the cut were BYU, Texas A&M, Boise State, Miami, and Alabama. That makes six schools from the SEC, four each from the Pac-10 and Big 10, three each from the ACC, Big East, and Big 12, and one apiece from the MWC and the WAC. Let the games begin.

-T 

The NBA Referee Scandal

I'm just catching up on the details of the Tim Donaghy scandal now that I'm back in town, and I can't imagine a bigger mess for the NBA. Supposedly, Donaghy is expected to cooperate with the FBI and name more officials and players involved in the point shaving/game fixing. But did anybody really think he was the only one? For years now people have been up in arms about the officiating in the NBA, stopping short of accusing them of being crooked just because it seemed so implausible. But now that we know that to be true, now that to suspect the referees of malfeasance is no longer a conspiracy theory, it seems impossible that Donaghy was alone. There are too many games now notorious for having been egregiously officiated (ahem, my Dallas Mavericks losing game 6 on the Dwayne Wade phantom call) for this to be a one man operation. I look forward to the fallout revealing more about this over the coming weeks.

UPDATE: A friend sent me this youtube footage of game 3 of the Suns-Spurs series officiated by Donaghy. It's rediculous. There are many more clips devoted to Donaghy's games.

T

Oh, Boy...

How did Mike Brown draw up a potential game tying possession in the final seconds without forbidding Anderson Verajao to shoot the basketball. As soon as he caught the ball and it was clear he was looking for a shot I would have bet my first born child that he was about to humiliate himself. How do you miss the rim on a finger roll from two feet away? Jeez.

-T

What're The Odds?

In 2002 and 2003 I played baseball at the University of South Carolina, and at the end of both years our centerfielder was drafted and signed. In 2002 Marcus McBeth went to the Oakland A's, and in 2003 Jon Coutlangus went to the Cincinnati Reds. Over the next couple of years they each failed to develop as hitters and were moved to the pitcher's mound by their respective clubs. Marcus was eventually traded to the Reds, and a week or two ago he was called up to join Jon in the Reds' bullpen, who made the club out of spring training. What are the odds that two centerfielders from the same college would be converted to pitchers, make it to the big leagues, and pitch together in the same bullpen? That blows my mind.

Incidentally, watching Marcus throw a ball is one of the most awe-inspiring things I have ever seen in my life. From what I hear he pitches in the low nineties, but that doesn't do any justice to the way he threw the ball from the outfield, where he was clocked at 99 MPH. It's a shame fans don't get to see that. 

-T